A study on the Psychology of Intelligence: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics was published on 12 January 2015 in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied.

When it comes to predicting important world events, teams do better job than individuals, this study shows. According to the new research published by the American Psychological Association, people can be trained to be effective forecasters even without access to classified records. 

The full study is available online: http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xap-0000040.pdf